Hdb Resale Prices Rises 26 4Q2024 97 Across Year
The latest quarterly data published by HDB on January 24 revealed that resale prices in the public housing market saw a 2.6% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024. This marks the 19th consecutive quarter of price growth in the resale market. The overall increase in resale prices for the whole of 2024 stands at 9.7%, bringing the cumulative price increase in the public housing market to 9.7%.
In comparison, the annual price increase for 2024 almost doubled that of 2023, which saw a 4.9% increase. While the resale prices increased in the last quarter of 2024, it was a slight moderation from the 2.7% increase recorded in the third quarter. According to Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research & data analytics at SRI, this significant growth in resale prices throughout the year can be largely attributed to the limited supply of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) during the year.
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There was a tight supply of flats in the resale market, which resulted in an upward pressure on prices. Additionally, buyers showed strong interest in newer flats and larger flat types, such as five-room and executive units, indicating a growing demand from families. As a result, these factors contributed to the robust growth in resale prices in 2024.
Out of all the flat types in the HDB resale market, five-room flats saw the highest resale price growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, recording an average price increase of 2.2% q-o-q to $754,097. Similarly, four-room flats also saw an increase of 2.2% q-o-q, bringing the average resale price to $652,544.
The Central Area saw the highest increase in prices in the last quarter of 2024, registering a 25.6% q-o-q growth. This was followed by Toa Payoh, which saw a quarterly price increase of 12.1%. Tampines (6.9%), Bishan (6.7%), and Bedok (6.1%) also recorded significant growth in prices.
In the last three months of 2024, around 285 HDB resale flats were sold for $1 million or more, bringing the total number of million-dollar transactions in the public housing market to 1,035 for the entire year. The majority of these transactions occurred in mature estates, with Kallang/Whampoa estate registering the highest number at 156 units, followed by Toa Payoh (144 units) and Bukit Merah (135 units).
However, the transaction volume in the resale market experienced a lull at the end of 2024, falling by 21.1% q-o-q from 8,142 units sold in the third quarter to 6,424 units sold in the fourth quarter. This drop can be attributed to seasonal factors such as the year-end holiday and festive season. Moreover, the lower interest rates may have also encouraged some buyers to consider the private residential or Executive Condominium (EC) markets.
Additionally, some buyers may have opted to apply for a flat in the latest Build-to-Order (BTO) sales exercise, which took place last October. This sales exercise saw HDB launching a record 15 projects consisting of 8,573 flats under the new location-based classification framework. For the first time, singles were allowed to apply for two-room flexi BTO flats in all locations.
Despite the fall in transaction volume in the last quarter of 2024, the overall resale transaction volume for the whole of 2024 increased by 8.4% y-o-y from 26,735 units sold in 2023 to 28,986 units sold in 2024. This is the highest number of yearly resale transactions since 2021, where 31,017 flats were sold.
Based on transaction data compiled by Huttons Asia, Sengkang, Woodlands, Punggol, Tampines, and Yishun were the top five most sought-after HDB towns among buyers in 2024. These estates accounted for approximately 35.9% of all HDB resales in 2024.
Moving forward, it is expected that around 6,976 flats will reach the end of their MOP this year, resulting in a 41.6% decrease in new housing supply entering the secondary public housing market as compared to the 11,952 flats in 2024. Sandrasegeran says that this is due to the relatively fewer BTO flats completed in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, HDB has announced plans to launch over 25,000 new flats across three BTO sales exercises in 2025, consisting of 19,600 BTO flats and more than 5,500 flats under the Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise. The next SBF exercise will take place concurrently with the upcoming BTO sales exercise in February, where 5,000 BTO flats in Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown, Woodlands, and Yishun will be offered.
This will be the largest SBF exercise held by HDB since November 2020, where 5,220 units were made available. Out of the 5,500 SBF flats, 4 in 10 are already completed. Sandrasegeran explains that the significant increase in public housing supply aims to address the growing demand for housing. Moreover, SBF flats are appealing to home seekers who prefer acquiring a brand-new, ready-to-move-in flat, which also contributes to a shorter waiting time as compared to the conventional BTO process.
Out of the 19,600 BTO flats planned for launch in 2025, about 3,800 units will be designated as Shorter Waiting Time (SWT) flats, offering wait times of less than three years. Sandrasegeran forecasts that the resale prices in the HDB market for 2025 could see an increase of 3.5% to 5.5%, with resale transaction volume ranging between 26,000 and 27,000. On the other hand, Hutton’s Lee anticipates a more optimistic price increase of between 5% to 8% across the year.