Resale Flat Prices Rise 25 19Th Straight Quarter Hdb 4Q2024 Flash
and 1 monthResale volume down 11.2% y-o-y in November: HDB flash estimatesNew flats vs resale flats: Which is better? –
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According to the HDB flash estimates released on Jan 2, there was a 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) increase in resale flat prices in 4Q2024. This was a slight decrease from the 2.7% q-o-q growth seen in the previous quarter. This marks the 19th consecutive quarter of price increases in the HDB resale market.
Furthermore, the flash estimates showed that the prices of HDB resale flats have grown by 9.6% in 2024, which is double the 4.9% increase seen in 2023. However, this growth rate was slower than the 10.4% price increase in 2022 and the 12.7% growth in 2021, as reported by Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group.
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According to HDB data from data.gov.sg, downloaded at 8.15am on Jan 2, there has been a slowdown in price growth for some flat types. OrangeTee has also noted that the median price of four-room flats saw a 2.5% q-o-q increase in 4Q2024, which is slower than the 3.4% growth seen in 3Q2024. Similarly, the prices of two-room flats rose by 2% q-o-q in 4Q2024, which is slower than the 3.9% increase in the previous quarter. Executive flats also saw a slower q-o-q price growth of 1.2% in 4Q2024, compared to 1.7% in 3Q2024. In contrast, the prices of five-room flats grew significantly faster at 3.2% in 4Q2024, as compared to the 1.2% increase in 3Q2024.
Resale volume decreased by 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 4Q2024
The number of resale transactions decreased by 3.6% y-o-y from 6,547 units in 4Q2023 to 6,314 units in 4Q2024. This is a larger decrease of 22.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), as compared to the 8,142 units in 3Q2024.
Sun attributes this decline in HDB resale transactions to the launch of over 8,500 new flats by HDB in the October Build-to-Order (BTO) exercise, many of which are located in prime and desirable locations. She adds, “The attractive features of these flats, such as scenic views and proximity to MRT stations, have diverted demand away from the resale market towards the BTO market.”
In addition, sales tend to slow down during the year-end school holidays as many Singaporeans travel overseas. This results in a decrease in house viewings and sales activities during this period.
However, according to Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex, the slower pace of growth seen in 4Q2024 can be attributed to government intervention in August 2024. During this period, the loan-to-value (LTV) limit for HDB loans was reduced by five percentage points to 75%. She explains, “Based on the weaker sales and slower growth in the HDB resale price index in 4Q2024, it seems that the August 2024 measures are taking effect in the market.” She also adds that the lower resale volume during this quarter may have put a drag on prices.
Resale volume recorded a record high of 28,876 units in 2024, which is an 8% increase from the 26,735 units recorded in 2023 and a 0.4% increase from the 27,896 units in 2022. However, it is still lower than the peak of 31,017 units in 2021.
The decrease in million-dollar flat transactions in 4Q2024
As a result of the decrease in resale transactions in 4Q2024, there was also a decrease in million-dollar flat transactions, with only 283 units being sold, as compared to 331 units in 3Q2024. Despite the decrease, there were still a record high of 1,033 million-dollar transactions in 2024, which is more than double the 469 transactions seen in the previous year, as reported by Sun.
Toa Payoh town led the million-dollar resale flat deals in 4Q2024, with 58 transactions. Of these, 20 were for four- and five-room units at Alkaff Vista in Bidadari Park Drive, which had recently crossed the five-year minimum occupation period (MOP). *Please note that this data is based on caveats and may differ from actual numbers.
According to Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore, the new classification of Plus and Prime BTO flats may have attracted more buyers to consider HDB resale homes in central locations. He notes, “These buyers may not be willing to accept the resale restrictions, such as a 10-year MOP, rental restrictions after MOP, subsidy clawback upon resale and resale income cap on future buyers.”
HDB resale prices are expected to continue rising in 2025, but at a slower pace
OrangeTee projects that HDB resale prices will continue to grow in 2025, but at a slower pace than in previous years. Sun also adds, “In many areas, prices have already reached new highs, which may create affordability concerns for potential buyers.” She also mentions that the ongoing supply of BTO flats may help to moderate price growth in the secondary market. However, the extent of this price stabilisation will depend on the number of BTO flats that the government plans to release in the upcoming years.
In February 2025, HDB will launch its largest sale of balance flats (SBF) exercise, offering more than 5,500 flats across various towns, as mentioned by Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia. He adds, “Some potential resale flat buyers may choose to wait and try their luck with the SBF exercise.” He also projects that HDB resale flat prices may grow by 5% to 7% in 2025, with a resale volume forecast of 29,000 to 30,000 units.
The projected growth of HDB resale prices and transactions in 2025
As compared to the previous year, ERA predicts a more measured rate of growth for HDB resale prices in 2025, due to a decrease in the supply of flats reaching MOP. This has been a key driver of price growth in recent years. Lim anticipates a growth rate of 3% to 6% in HDB resale prices, with a resale volume of 26,000 to 27,000 units by the end of 2025.
PropNex expects the HDB resale market to perform well in 2025, underpinned by healthy housing demand and fewer MOP flats coming on board. This may help to keep resale prices firm. Wong projects that HDB resale flat prices may rise by 5% to 7% in 2025, with a resale volume of 29,000 to 30,000 units.
According to Huttons, the supply of BTO flats in 2025 will be further reduced to 17,290 units, which is approximately 12% lower than the supply in 2024. Lee notes, “As there is no upfront information on the BTO projects with a shorter waiting time, buyers are likely to turn to the resale market.” He also predicts that the million-dollar flat market may stabilise at 900 to 1,200 units in 2025. Lastly, Huttons projects the end-of-year figures to be between 26,000 to 28,000 resale flat transactions, with an expected price growth rate of 5% to 8%.